credit rate: 2015 return and 2016 forecasts

credit rate: 2015 return and 2016 forecasts

Globally stable rates and a significant share loan renegotiations

Globally stable rates and a significant share loan renegotiations

If we exclude the rise in rates this summer, they were very stable in 2015. The summer rise was relatively anecdotal since the rates stabilized in September.

The large number of loan renegotiation requests has, in part, contributed to this summer’s strong activity. In some ways victims of their success, the lenders have been forced to regulate this influx by reviewing their rates on the rise.

But as of September, the volume of loan files in banks has gradually returned to a normal level with a return to low interest rates.

A month of June and a year-end particularly beneficial for borrowers

A month of June and a year-end particularly beneficial for borrowers

At the end of the year, the rates have been modified by few banks despite some increases recorded this summer. All specialists agree that the indices will certainly keep their current level, very low, until the end of the year. Some even predict that this trend will continue in 2016! We will come back to it.

It was in June that the loan rates were the lowest before rising. Beginning in September and for the remainder of the year, rates fell back to the historically low level of this period. This return was notably marked by:

  • lower rates on government bonds,
  • their sharp decline in October and November 2015 in all regions.

It is thanks to the continuation of the policy of facilitating the homeownership led by the banks, having achieved their production objectives, that the rates remain stable and low. This attractiveness is accompanied by less stringent granting conditions.

First-time buyers have become the main target of banks with:

  • extended loan terms, more adapted to their capacities,
  • an extended zero rate loan, which should value their purchasing power.

Note also that the prices of the, which remain interesting, and the multiplication of aid are also elements explaining the large number of loan files in 2015.

A year 2016 which, a priori, should not be too much
contrast with 2015

A year 2016 which, a priori, should not be too much contrast with 2015

According to some analyzes, the strong competition from banks could lead them to further lower their indices in the coming weeks. This in order to conquer new borrowers for 2016.

Other experts say loan renegotiations, which have been very successful this year, are expected to be lower in 2016. Two arguments:

  • this has already been done for most credits that could,
  • recent credits (since early 2014) have been granted with rates good enough not to renegotiate.

However, let’s not forget that it is not possible at this time to precisely predict the developments for 2016: market and credit trends will be well identified only during the year, after several months activity.

 


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